Setvalue

Playing for Setvalue means to play a pair in the holecards in order to hit the set on the flop. If you don´t hit the set you must fold if you only play for setvalue. You hit the set in nearly 12% and then you will win the hand in 85-90%. So you know preflop that you only will win the hand in about 10% of the situations. That means that you have to win ten times the preflop bet. If you only win it nine times it isn´t pofitable. That´s the same, if your opponent have such a small stack. If both players have about 20 times the preflop bet you have to think about your opponent and calculate a little bit. If the player wouldn´t pay anything after the flop in over 60% it isn´t profitable. But if you know that your opponent only play strong starting hands and only fold rather than 50% and pay the other times his full stack it is profitable.

But it isn´t really such easy. Let´s think about a situation, where your opponent will pay his hole stack in 25% (20 times of the preflop bet)of the situations. In other 25% he will bet the flop and turn, or call a flop raise. He will fold to any more action. Lets say he will pay 10 times the preplop bet. The next 25% he will make a continuation bet and fold to every action after it. He will pay 2 times the preflop bet. The last 25% he will pay no cent postflop.

The calculation. 0,25*20+0,25*10+0,25*2 = 8

We win 8 times the preflop bet in the middle. Thats not enough to call it preflop. He must risk all his money in 35% and fold every action only 5% to do it profitable.

Now we take a stiution where one more player is in the pot preflop. Both players play like the calculation obove. Here it is very profitable to call. We double the chance to stack one of our opponents. So we will win 16 times the preflop bet in this situation.